@article {833, title = {Planning for climate change: Identifying minimum-dispersal corridors for the Cape proteaceae}, journal = {Conservation Biology}, volume = {19}, year = {2005}, month = {2005}, pages = {1063-1074}, abstract = {Climate change poses a challenge to the conventional approach to biodiversity conservation, which relies on fixed protected areas, because the changing climate is expected to shift the distribution of suitable areas for many species. Some species will persist only if they can colonize new areas, although in some cases their dispersal abilities may be very limited. To address this problem we devised a quantitative method for identifying multiple corridors of connectivity through shifting habitat suitabilities that seeks to minimize dispersal demands first and then the area of land required. We applied the method to Proteaceae mapped on a 1-minute grid for the western part of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to supplement the existing protected areas using Worldmap software. Our goal was to represent each species in at least 35 grid cells (approximately 100 km(2)) at all times between 2000 and 2050 despite climate change. Although it was possible to achieve the goal at reasonable cost, caution will be needed in applying our method to reserves or other conservation investments until there is further information to support or refine the climate-change models and the species{\textquoteright} habitat-suitability and dispersal models.}, keywords = {area-selection algorithms, bioclimatic modeling, biodiversity, biodiversity conservation, connectivity, Conservation, distance, distribution models, distributions, floristic region, habitat suitability, plant migration, Protected areas, reserve selection algorithms, south-africa, species persistence}, url = {://000231118600013}, author = {Williams, P. and Hannah, L. and Andelman, S. and Midgley, G. and Araujo, M. and Hughes, G. and Manne, L. and Martinez-Meyer, E. and Pearson, R.} } @article {438, title = {The view from the Cape: Extinction risk, protected areas, and climate change}, journal = {BioScience}, volume = {55}, number = {3}, year = {2005}, pages = {231-242}, abstract = {

In the past decade, a growing number of studies have modeled the effects of climate change on large numbers of species across diverse focal regions. Many common points emerge from these studies, but it can be difficult to understand the consequences for conservation when data for large numbers of species are summarized. Here we use an in-depth example, the multispecies modeling effort that has been conducted for the proteas of the Cape Floristic Region of South Africa, to illustrate lessons learned in this and other multispecies modeling efforts. Modeling shows that a substantial number of species may lose all suitable range and many may lose all representation in protected areas as a result of climate change, while a much larger number may experience major loss in the amount of their range that is protected. The spatial distribution of protected areas, particularly between lowlands and uplands, is an important determinant of the likely conservation consequences of climate change.

}, keywords = {proteas nature reserve Cape Florisitc Region}, author = {Hannah, L and Midgley, G. and Hughes, G. and Bomhard, B.} }